Automated ML Forecasts Big Tech's Response to New Bill & Tariffs

Recent analyses suggest a mixed financial outlook for major technology companies, influenced by new legislative measures and trade policies. While a significant new bill is projected to bolster the AI sector, recent tariffs appear to be offsetting some of these potential gains for tech firms.

Morgan Stanley analysts anticipate that the “One Big Beautiful Bill” will significantly benefit Big Tech. They predict this legislation will inject substantial capital into leading artificial intelligence companies, thereby solidifying their market dominance in upcoming AI-driven competitions.

However, this optimistic forecast is tempered by the introduction of new tariffs. Effective August 1, 2025, these tariffs, implemented by the Trump administration to offset tax cuts included in the aforementioned bill, have seemingly not yielded positive outcomes for tech firms.

An examination of recent stock performance indicates a varied impact across the industry giants. Google and Meta have demonstrated greater resilience in the face of these changes compared to Amazon. This difference in performance is largely attributed to the robust advertising revenues that underpin Google’s and Meta’s business models, providing a buffer against economic shifts that might more directly affect e-commerce and cloud services.

The current landscape thus presents a nuanced picture for Big Tech, where legislative support for innovation in AI is counterbalanced by trade policies that introduce new financial pressures.