Google denies AI search traffic impact, blames user trend shifts

Many recent analyses suggest that the rise of AI-powered search features and the widespread adoption of AI chatbots are significantly eroding traffic to online publishers. Google, however, denied this assertion on Wednesday, at least in aggregate. The search giant claims that the total volume of organic clicks originating from its search engine and directed to websites has remained “relatively stable” over the past year, further asserting that the average quality of these clicks has even seen a slight improvement.

In a new blog post, Liz Reid, Google’s VP and Head of Search, directly challenged third-party reports, deeming them “inaccurate” due to “flawed methodologies, isolated examples, or traffic changes that occurred prior to the roll out of AI features in Search.” While Google has yet to provide specific data to substantiate these claims, even assuming their veracity, it doesn’t necessarily absolve AI of any impact. Indeed, Google itself offers a nuanced perspective, with Reid acknowledging that “user trends are shifting traffic to different sites, resulting in decreased traffic to some sites and increased traffic to others.” This admission, particularly the emphasis on “some,” is crucial, as Google refrains from disclosing how many sites are gaining or losing. The undeniable surge in traffic to chatbots like ChatGPT in recent months further complicates the narrative, making it difficult to dismiss the struggles faced by many online publishers.

For years, Google has evolved its search engine to provide direct answers on the results page, a trend now amplified by its “AI Overviews” at the top of search results and an interactive AI chatbot for certain queries. Yet, the company maintains that these innovations are not fundamentally reshaping the search landscape. Instead, Google points to a broader shift in user behavior, where individuals are increasingly initiating their information quests on platforms beyond Google.com. Reid elaborates that “People are increasingly seeking out and clicking on sites with forums, videos, podcasts, and posts where they can hear authentic voices and first-hand perspectives.” This observation aligns with a long-standing trend; as far back as 2022, a Google executive conceded that platforms like TikTok and Instagram were already encroaching upon Google’s core offerings, including Search and Maps. Prabhakar Raghavan, then Google’s SVP for Knowledge and Information, noted that nearly 40% of young people bypass Google Maps or Search when looking for a lunch spot, opting instead for TikTok or Instagram.

This erosion of Google’s dominance isn’t new; for years, the company has grappled with Amazon.com becoming the de facto starting point for online shopping searches and Reddit.com serving as the primary destination for research. Google’s numerous attempts to attract users to Google Shopping, through features like universal shopping carts, local inventory checks, and making its listings free for merchants in 2020, underscore these deep-seated concerns. Concurrently, as users voiced growing dissatisfaction with the quality of Google Search results, the demand for Reddit content became so pronounced that Google eventually introduced a “Reddit” filter (now simply “forums”) to help users narrow down relevant queries. This historical context suggests that the notion of “search dying” might precede the advent of sophisticated AI features, implying AI is not solely responsible for current traffic challenges.

Google’s recent blog post subtly attempts to redefine what constitutes a valuable click for websites, shifting emphasis from volume to “click quality.” Google asserts that the average quality of clicks has improved, sending “slightly more quality clicks” than a year ago. A “quality click,” as defined by Google, is one where users do not quickly bounce back to the search results but instead engage deeply with the content. The company highlights that clicks originating from AI responses are more likely to lead to deeper engagement, thus making them more valuable. Furthermore, Google frames AI as an opportunity for web publishers, arguing that “with AI Overviews, people are seeing more links on the page than before,” creating “more queries and more links,” and thus “more opportunities for websites to surface and get clicked.”

However, independent reports paint a less optimistic picture. While AI is a growing referral source, studies indicate it has yet to compensate for overall click declines. A recent Similarweb study revealed a stark trend: the percentage of news searches resulting in zero clicks to news websites surged from 56% in May 2024, when Google launched AI Overviews, to 69% by May 2025. This suggests a significant portion of search queries are being satisfied directly on Google’s platform, bypassing publishers entirely. Google appears to be cognizant of this trend, as evidenced by its recent launch of a product designed to help publishers monetize dwindling traffic through alternative means, such as micropayments or newsletter sign-ups, rather than relying solely on advertising revenue.

Google’s very act of launching a public relations campaign to assert “AI is not the end of search traffic!” ironically underscores the gravity of the situation. It suggests an attempt to persuade publishers to disregard their own data and instead take comfort in Google’s assurance that it still directs “billions of clicks to websites” daily. The reality for many publishers, however, may be far more complex, pointing to a search ecosystem undergoing profound, multi-faceted transformations.