Sam Altman: AI Market in a Bubble, Warns of Overexcitement
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has confirmed his belief that the artificial intelligence market is currently experiencing a speculative bubble, echoing growing concerns among economists about the sector’s soaring valuations. Speaking in a wide-ranging interview with The Verge and other journalists, Altman directly addressed the question of whether investors are exhibiting excessive enthusiasm for AI, stating unequivocally, “My opinion is yes.”
Altman drew parallels between the current AI landscape and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, a period when internet startup valuations surged dramatically before a significant crash in 2000. He observed that historical bubbles often arise when “smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth.” In the case of the dot-com era, he noted, the underlying technology—the internet—was indeed profoundly important and transformative, yet public excitement outpaced rational investment.
His skepticism extends particularly to the funding of nascent AI companies. Altman expressed strong reservations, calling it “insane” that some AI startups, comprising “three people and an idea,” are securing funding at exceptionally high valuations. He characterized this as “not rational behavior,” cautioning that “someone’s gonna get burned there.” This sentiment comes amidst a flurry of significant investments into new AI ventures. For instance, Safe Superintelligence, co-founded by former OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, and Thinking Machines, established by former OpenAI chief technology officer Mira Murati, have each reportedly raised billions of dollars in recent times.
Despite these warnings of potential market correction, Altman maintains a nuanced perspective on the long-term economic impact. He acknowledged that while “someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money,” conversely, “a lot of people are going to make a phenomenal amount of money.” Ultimately, he expressed a personal belief, albeit with a caveat that he could be mistaken, that the overall effect of the AI boom would be “a huge net win for the economy.”
Looking further ahead, Altman articulated ambitious plans for OpenAI itself, indicating that the company is poised to weather any potential market turbulence. He stated that the public should “expect OpenAI to spend trillions of dollars on data center construction in the not very distant future,” anticipating that such massive investment might prompt hand-wringing among economists. This forward-looking statement suggests a deep conviction in the enduring foundational importance of AI technology, regardless of short-term market fluctuations.