AI Hype Peaks, Sentiment Shifts: Data Reveals Bubble Concerns
The relentless drumbeat of artificial intelligence news may feel overwhelming, and for good reason: quantitative analysis suggests the AI hype cycle is indeed reaching unprecedented levels. Zach Perkel, Principal and Director of Applied AI at the enterprise AI firm Fractal, recently delved into the archives of Y Combinator’s Hacker News, a prominent online forum favored by developers, entrepreneurs, and tech enthusiasts. His findings offer a compelling look at the escalating momentum of AI in the public discourse.
Perkel’s comprehensive study spanned 24,910 articles and posts that made it into Hacker News’s coveted top 10 between January 1, 2019, and August 15, 2025. The data reveals a dramatic surge in AI interest, which has amplified ten-fold since early 2019. In the first quarter of that year, only 39 AI-related posts broke into the top tier. Fast forward to the third quarter of 2025, and with the period only half complete, the count has already soared to 337 AI content pieces featured prominently on Hacker News.
While the increased conversation surrounding AI in a post-ChatGPT world is hardly surprising, the sheer acceleration of this trend is remarkable. Perkel’s analysis pinpoints a significant inflection point between the fourth quarter of 2022, which saw the public debut of OpenAI’s ChatGPT on November 30, and the first quarter of 2023, when discussions around the tool’s implications truly intensified. This period marked a substantial leap from 89 AI-related stories in Q4 2022 to 174 in Q1 2023. This initial surge, which captured the moment a public-facing chatbot transformed how many interact with AI, was for a time the largest increase in interest. However, the current period, specifically the leap from Q2 2025 to Q3 2025, is on track to surpass even that monumental shift, potentially becoming the most significant spike in AI interest yet.
What makes this data particularly insightful is the nature of the Hacker News audience itself. This is not a platform for the uninitiated; its users are largely tech professionals already well-versed in the accessibility and ramifications of widespread AI tools. This context lends significant weight to Perkel’s accompanying sentiment analysis of these posts. He discovered that in the era following ChatGPT’s launch, no period has recorded a higher percentage of negative posts about AI than the current quarter, with 42% of top discussions expressing criticism of the topic.
This growing negativity represents a new peak within a short-term trend. In the first quarter of 2025, just 27% of top Hacker News posts concerning AI were critical. This figure climbed to 36% in the second quarter, marking the highest percentage of negative sentiment since ChatGPT’s introduction in late 2022. The Q3 figures have now eclipsed that, indicating a sustained and accelerating shift in perception. This increasingly critical tone, emerging from a highly informed segment of the tech community, suggests a potential “vibe shift” in the AI landscape. While the question of an “AI bubble” remains open, especially with companies like OpenAI reportedly nearing a $500 billion valuation, these trends suggest a growing undercurrent of skepticism beneath the surface of the pervasive AI hype.